At least 27 people were killed and another 26 injured in two mass shootings in South Africa over the weekend, prompting renewed questions about police intelligence, illegal firearms and the country’s ability to prevent attacks involving multiple victims.
The first attack took place at a tavern in Wedela, near Carletonville on the West Rand, on Saturday night, 26 September. Seventeen people were killed and 15 wounded.
In a separate incident in the early hours of Sunday, 27 September, gunmen opened fire at an entertainment venue in Lwandle in the Western Cape, leaving 10 people dead and 11 injured.
The incidents have intensified concerns about whether law enforcement agencies are gathering sufficient intelligence to identify violent groups and detect potential attacks before they occur.
Security experts have also pointed to the continued circulation of illegal firearms, arguing that stronger intelligence gathering, firearm tracing and action against trafficking networks could help reduce the risk of mass-casualty shootings.
The motives behind the two attacks have not been established, and investigators have yet to determine whether the incidents are connected.
Police intelligence and illegal firearms under scrutiny
Criminologist Professor Kholofelo Rakubu said the shootings should prompt a broader examination of how South Africa understands and prevents multiple-victim firearm violence.
Rakubu cautioned against drawing conclusions about the motives before investigations are completed. Possible explanations could include robbery, revenge, organised crime, extortion, gang activity or interpersonal conflict.
He argued that the locations of the attacks should not be confused with their underlying causes.
According to Rakubu, taverns may be the scenes of violent incidents without necessarily being responsible for the circumstances that lead to them. The wider question is what allows perpetrators to access firearms capable of killing or injuring numerous people within a short period.
Research by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) previously recorded 314 incidents in which three or more people were killed in a single attack between the 2017/18 and 2019/20 financial years.
Rakubu said subsequent analysis indicated a further increase in multiple-murder incidents.
ISS expert Willem Els said the reported method of the Wedela attack resembled previous shootings and could potentially be linked to illegal mining. However, he stressed that the cause of the latest incident remained unknown.
Els said illegal taverns were often places where groups of people gathered, potentially making them targets for attackers.
He described the apparent absence of advance crime intelligence as alarming and called for station commissioners to work with community policing forums on local crime-prevention plans.
These plans should include greater police visibility and closer cooperation between law enforcement and communities.
Investigators urged to trace firearms and examine response systems
Ian Cameron, chairperson of Parliament’s portfolio committee on police, said the reported involvement of eight armed men, rifles, pistols and two getaway vehicles raised questions about the possible coordination behind the Wedela shooting.
He said investigators needed to establish who organised the attack, who supplied the weapons and whether those involved had links to previous crimes.
Cameron stressed that describing the incident as a tavern shooting identified its location but did not explain why it happened.
He also called for an examination of emergency response arrangements, including telephone call handling, functioning police radios, available response vehicles and coordination with medical services.
The South African Police Service (SAPS) management should establish whether these systems operated effectively during the incident, he said.
Cameron added that any expansion of investigative powers to local and provincial governments would require clearly defined responsibilities, appropriate training, vetting, national standards, information-sharing and independent oversight.
He said preventing criminals from obtaining firearms and ammunition was directly relevant to tackling violent crime, while warning against equating lawful firearm ownership with criminal use.
Gun Free South Africa executive director Stanley Maphosa said intelligence gathering, detective investigations, ballistic analysis and firearm tracing all needed to be strengthened.
Maphosa said SAPS recovered at least 100 illegal firearms every week and had destroyed more than 317,000 firearms and firearm parts over seven years. Yet criminals continued to obtain weapons, suggesting that the illegal supply was being replenished.
He said every firearm recovered from a crime should help investigators establish where it originated, who supplied it and whether it was connected to other offences.
The weekend shootings have placed renewed attention on whether intelligence, firearm investigations, community reporting and emergency responses are working together effectively.