South Africa may experience lasting economic consequences if growing numbers of foreign nationals continue to leave the country, with economists and industry leaders warning that the effects could extend far beyond recent anti-immigration demonstrations.
The concern follows the nationwide March and March movement and subsequent protests, which have sparked renewed debate over immigration, employment and border enforcement. While some believe the departure of undocumented migrants could create more opportunities for South Africans, others argue that the wider economic impact may prove far more complex.
Economist Dawie Roodt said the immediate disruption caused by shop closures during the nationwide protests on 30 June represented only a fraction of the potential cost.
According to Roodt, many foreign nationals living in South Africa—regardless of their immigration status—contributed to economic activity through labour, entrepreneurship and consumer spending.
He argued that losing productive workers and business owners in an economy already struggling to achieve sustained growth could weaken economic performance for years.
More importantly, he said, the true financial cost may never be fully measured.
Experts divided over jobs and economic impact
Political analyst Piet Croucamp believes the protests have also affected South Africa’s international image.
He said widespread international coverage of the demonstrations could reinforce perceptions that South Africa is an unsafe and intolerant society, potentially discouraging future investors and visitors.
Croucamp also challenged the belief that fewer foreign nationals automatically translate into more employment opportunities for citizens.
Many migrant-owned businesses employ South Africans, he noted, while township retailers have helped maintain competitive prices for everyday goods.
Should large numbers of foreign-owned shops close permanently, consumers could ultimately face higher prices for food and household essentials.
However, other analysts see possible employment gains.
Professor Benjamin Rapanyane of North-West University said some agricultural employers have already begun replacing undocumented foreign workers with South African citizens.
Drawing on examples from villages near his home, he said more than 120 local residents had reportedly secured farm jobs previously occupied by undocumented migrants.
Even so, agricultural organisations caution against viewing all foreign workers as interchangeable.
TLU chair Bennie van Zyl said many documented migrants from Zimbabwe and Malawi have spent decades working on South African farms, developing specialist skills while becoming part of local communities.
Some have married South Africans, raised families and worked alongside their children on commercial farms, making their future increasingly uncertain.
Tourism and business groups monitor developments
Industry bodies say the immediate disruption to business operations has so far remained limited.
The Motor Industry Staff Association reported only minor operational challenges during the protest period, mainly because some businesses operated with reduced staff and experienced lower customer activity.
The Southern Africa Tourism Services Association also said inbound tourism continued largely uninterrupted, with operators adjusting travel routes where necessary to avoid isolated protest areas.
Hospitality leaders, however, expressed greater concern about South Africa’s long-term reputation as an international tourism destination.
They warned that any perception that foreign visitors or residents may feel unsafe could undermine years of work aimed at rebuilding international tourism following previous global and domestic challenges.
Meanwhile, Spar South Africa dismissed social media claims that it had launched a recruitment campaign for 15,000 South Africans to replace foreign workers.
Company spokesperson Mpudi Maubane said no such recruitment drive exists and described the online posts as false information, adding that the retailer continues to recruit staff through its standard employment procedures.
Source: Adapted from local media reports.