Scientists are warning that the developing El Niño weather pattern could become the strongest ever recorded, raising fresh concerns about global food security, rising inflation and economic instability.
Climate forecasts suggest there is up to a 90% probability that El Niño conditions will develop later this year. Some projections indicate that ocean temperature anomalies could exceed those recorded during the devastating 1877–78 El Niño, one of the deadliest climate events in modern history.
That historic event triggered widespread drought across Africa, South America, India and China, contributing to catastrophic famines that claimed tens of millions of lives. Today, experts believe the world is better equipped through modern agriculture and emergency relief systems, but they also warn that geopolitical conflict and fragile supply chains could magnify the effects of another extreme climate event.
Climate Risks Could Amplify Existing Global Pressures
Researchers say El Niño acts as a “threat multiplier”, worsening existing pressures on food production, water availability and economic stability.
The ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have already disrupted global grain markets and affected the movement of fertilisers and energy supplies. Analysts warn that any further disruption during a severe El Niño could reduce agricultural production in several major food-producing regions.
Countries heavily dependent on food imports could face additional risks if key exporters impose restrictions to protect domestic supplies. India, which accounts for a significant share of global rice production, is frequently cited as one of the countries whose export policies could influence international food prices during periods of climate stress.
Humanitarian organisations have also expressed concern over declining international aid budgets. Combined with more frequent climate disasters, reduced financial support may leave vulnerable communities less able to recover from droughts, floods and crop failures.
Several climate researchers note that the interval between major extreme weather events has shortened in recent decades, reducing the time available for communities to rebuild resilience before another disaster strikes.
South Africa Enters Season From A Stronger Position
While southern Africa is expected to experience hotter and drier conditions if El Niño strengthens later this year, South African agricultural experts believe the country is better prepared than it was during the severe 2015–16 drought.
AgriSA Chief Operating Officer Jolanda Andrag cautioned against assuming the upcoming season will mirror previous droughts, noting that seasonal forecasts remain uncertain and that the timing, intensity and geographical distribution of rainfall cannot yet be predicted with confidence.
She said South Africa is entering the 2026/27 production season following an exceptionally strong agricultural year.
The country is expected to harvest approximately 21.5 million tonnes of summer grains and oilseeds, including a record 17.25 million tonnes of maize. Strong carry-over stocks are expected to provide an important buffer should production decline during the next growing season.
TLU SA Chairperson Bennie van Zyl added that weather impacts vary considerably between farming regions and that previous El Niño events have not always resulted in poor harvests nationwide.
Agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo also pointed to favourable soil moisture conditions created by several years of La Niña rainfall. He said the improved moisture profile should support crop establishment when planting begins later this year, even if rainfall becomes below average.
Although experts continue to monitor developments closely, they believe South Africa’s strong grain reserves, healthy soil moisture and improved agricultural conditions place the country in a stronger position than many other regions facing the prospect of a severe El Niño.
Source: PBS; Small Wars Journal; AgriSA; TLU SA.