South Africa could experience another period of extreme weather over the coming months after international climate forecasters warned that one of the strongest El Niño events in more than seven decades is becoming increasingly likely.
Scientists expect the climate pattern to intensify during the second half of 2026 and continue into early 2027, raising the possibility of prolonged drought, extreme heat, irregular rainfall and other severe weather conditions across southern Africa.
While economists believe the country’s economy is now better positioned to absorb some of the inflationary impact associated with drought, agriculture remains vulnerable to significant disruption.
Annabel Bishop, Chief Economist at Investec, said the latest outlook from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center places the probability of a super El Niño developing at 97%.
If the forecasts materialise, the event could rank among the strongest observed since global records began in 1950.
South Africa has experienced several major El Niño episodes in recent decades, including those in 1991/92, 2015/16 and 2023/24. The 2015/16 event caused the country’s most severe drought in 35 years and pushed food inflation to almost 18.5%.
Although another strong El Niño raises concerns about food production, Bishop noted that its influence on overall consumer inflation is likely to be less severe than in previous decades.
Food now represents a smaller share of household expenditure than it did twenty years ago, reducing its weighting within South Africa’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). As incomes have increased and consumers spend more on services, food and non-alcoholic beverages account for just over 18% of the inflation basket, compared with more than 25% in 2006.
Food categories also affect inflation differently. Products such as fish and seafood carry relatively little weight in the CPI basket, meaning even substantial price increases have only a limited impact on headline inflation.
Meat and cereal products, however, remain far more influential because they account for a much larger share of household spending. During the 2015/16 drought, cereal prices accelerated sharply and became one of the largest contributors to rising inflation.
Food prices, Bishop said, were only one component behind inflation during that period, alongside housing, utilities, transport and financial services.
Agriculture And Extreme Weather Remain Major Concerns
Despite the reduced inflationary impact, climate experts continue to warn that a stronger El Niño could have serious consequences for agriculture and water resources.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recently reported that forecast models show unusually strong agreement that El Niño conditions will strengthen rapidly over the coming months.
Sea surface temperatures in key monitoring regions are expected to rise to more than 2°C above average, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves, prolonged dry spells, heavy rainfall events and other weather extremes.
South Africa’s agricultural sector could face particular pressure if high temperatures persist during critical growing periods.
Grain South Africa has warned that sustained heat and below-average rainfall may significantly reduce crop yields. Under severe conditions, some crops can lose as much as 5% of their potential yield per day, meaning prolonged heatwaves could rapidly translate into substantial production losses.
The organisation also cautioned that El Niño frequently disrupts rainfall patterns during the latter part of the summer rainfall season, making drought one of the most common consequences for South African farmers.
While the country’s broader economy may be better equipped to withstand food price shocks than in previous El Niño cycles, experts agree that communities, farmers and businesses should prepare for an increased risk of severe weather over the next year.
Source: Investec, NOAA, World Meteorological Organization, Grain South Africa