South Africans may need to prepare for more weeks of cold weather, with meteorologists warning that winter’s harshest conditions could still lie ahead while climate experts closely monitor the development of a potentially stronger El Niño event.
Although recent cold fronts have already brought freezing temperatures, snow and disruptive weather to parts of the country, forecasters say additional systems are expected to move across South Africa through July and August.
At the same time, longer-term climate outlooks are raising questions about whether the current El Niño pattern could intensify into a strong or even “super” El Niño, potentially affecting rainfall patterns during the 2026/27 summer season.
More cold fronts expected before winter ends
According to South African Weather Service forecaster Lehlohonolo Thobela, another cold front is approaching the Western Cape but is not expected to have a major impact on inland regions.
He said temperatures across central and eastern South Africa should gradually return to levels more typical for winter following the recent spell of cold and wet weather.
Meteorologists caution, however, that the public should not assume winter is nearing its end.
Vox Weather meteorologist Annette Botha explained that while many people associate 21 June with the beginning of winter because it marks the winter solstice, meteorological winter officially runs from 1 June to 31 August.
Using full calendar months allows weather experts to compare long-term climate records and seasonal trends more accurately.
Botha noted that the start of winter has actually been relatively moderate compared with some recent years despite dramatic weather conditions at the end of autumn.
However, she stressed that some of South Africa’s most significant cold fronts historically occur during late June, July and August.
These systems can bring widespread rainfall, gale-force winds, mountain snowfall and dangerous icy conditions, particularly in elevated regions.
El Niño could shape next summer’s outlook
While winter remains the immediate concern, climate scientists are increasingly focused on developments in the Pacific Ocean.
The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) earlier confirmed the return of El Niño conditions, a climate phenomenon known for influencing global weather patterns.
Recent discussions among forecasters have centred on whether the current event could strengthen significantly during late 2026 and continue into 2027.
Botha said it is important not to assume that El Niño automatically leads to drought in South Africa.
The impact of every El Niño event differs depending on its intensity, timing and interaction with other climate systems.
Historically, the strongest effects are usually felt in South Africa’s summer rainfall regions, while the Western Cape’s winter rainfall areas are generally less affected.
As a result, forecasters say it remains too early to determine what the coming summer season will look like.
The agricultural sector is nevertheless paying close attention.
Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa chief economist Wandile Sihlobo said concerns about a potential drought have been growing among analysts and farming organisations.
He noted that the 2025/26 agricultural season delivered exceptional results thanks to favourable rainfall and record maize and soybean harvests.
South Africa also experienced an unusually extended rainy season, with rainfall continuing into parts of the interior later than normal.
Although excessive late-season rain can create challenges for some crops, Sihlobo said the moisture retained in the soil should provide valuable support for farmers at the beginning of the next planting season.
For now, weather experts say South Africans should focus on the remainder of winter, while monitoring climate developments that could influence rainfall and agricultural conditions in the months ahead.
Source: South African Weather Service (SAWS), Vox Weather, Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz)