South African motorists could be facing another major fuel price shock in October, with current Central Energy Fund data pointing to a possible petrol price approaching R30 a litre.
Mineral and Petroleum Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe has told Parliament that there are currently no new interventions planned to shield consumers from rising fuel costs.
The latest daily fuel-price calculations indicate that petrol could increase by between R2.47 and R2.62 a litre in October if current trends continue. That would put the price of petrol at roughly R29.54 a litre.
Diesel is also facing a substantial increase, with projected rises of between R2.42 and R2.81 a litre.
The figures remain projections based on daily under-recoveries and are not the final October pump prices. South Africa’s fuel prices are adjusted monthly, with the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources publishing the official adjustment.
Government has limited room to cushion motorists
Mantashe said the department continues to administer fuel prices in accordance with the country’s regulatory framework.
The minister attributed the latest pressure primarily to the Basic Fuel Price component, which reflects international market conditions and is heavily influenced by geopolitical developments.
South Africa imports crude oil and refined petroleum products, meaning global oil prices and international supply conditions can have a direct impact on domestic fuel costs. Government’s previous fuel-price announcements have repeatedly identified international crude and petroleum-product prices, along with exchange-rate movements, as key components of the monthly adjustment.
Mantashe said the department is reviewing the Regulatory Accounting System, which covers margins at different points along the fuel supply chain.
The review is expected to be completed by March 2027.
That means any structural changes arising from the process are unlikely to provide immediate relief to motorists facing the October increase.
The pressure is also being felt on the fiscal side.
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana has previously warned that using the fuel-tax system to shield consumers comes with a significant cost to the national budget.
In April 2026, government introduced a temporary reduction in the general fuel levy after international energy prices surged. The official joint statement at the time said the initial one-month reduction was expected to result in about R6 billion in foregone tax revenue.
The broader cost of the 2026 relief measures was later reported at more than R17 billion.
A further large-scale tax reduction would therefore require government to find replacement revenue through spending reductions, additional taxes or borrowing.
Godongwana has argued that fiscal policy also has to protect the sustainability of public finances, stabilise debt and support economic growth.
Petrol and diesel could both set new records
The current projections would represent another record-breaking period for South Africa’s fuel market.
Petrol prices had already reached unprecedented levels earlier in 2026 after international energy markets were hit by geopolitical shocks.
The June 2026 petrol price surpassed the previous record of R26.74 a litre, which had been set in July 2022 following the disruption to global oil markets caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The latest projections would put October petrol prices more than R2.50 above the September level.
For a driver filling a 50-litre tank, an increase of R2.50 a litre would add about R125 to the cost of a full tank.
The impact could extend well beyond private motorists. Higher fuel prices increase the cost of transporting goods and people, potentially adding pressure to logistics, food distribution, deliveries and public transport.
Diesel prices are also under severe pressure.
The latest figures cited in the projections put wholesale 0.005% diesel at around R30.05 a litre, with October potentially taking the price to approximately R32.86.
Before the sharp fuel-price movements of 2026, the previous diesel record stood at R25.53 a litre in July 2022.
However, the projected October figures should not be treated as confirmed prices.
The final adjustment will depend on the fuel-price mechanism and the international and domestic factors recorded during the remainder of the pricing period. The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources confirms that South African fuel prices are adjusted monthly according to factors including international petroleum prices, exchange rates and statutory elements.
For households already under pressure from higher living costs, the prospect of another major fuel increase could become an important financial consideration.
For government, the challenge is balancing immediate relief for consumers with the longer-term need to protect public finances.
For now, neither the Mineral and Petroleum Resources Department nor National Treasury has announced a new broad-based fuel-price relief package.
If the current CEF calculations persist, motorists may therefore have to prepare for a petrol price that comes increasingly close to the symbolic R30-a-litre threshold in October.